Foundations for Post Conflict Growth Agenda in the MENA Region

The Arab uprisings of 2011 have substantially shaken the political and economic foundations of many countries in the MENA region. Tunisia has been able to move towards democratic governance but continues to face substantial economic and social challenges. Egypt initially faced internal conflicts and has since been attempting to forge a new path for political stability. Syria, Yemen, and Libya have experienced devastating wars and terrorism with huge physical & human capital costs, large-scale institutional degradation, multi-dimensional conflict, and state failures. Millions of people have been forced to leave their homes. Cities, cultures, and infrastructure have been utterly destroyed. Intensity of conflict and violence have declined recently; however, wars have not fully ended yet and risks are still alive.

The ERF has been engaged in conducting a multi-year research project comprising four sub-projects: national peace-building and post-conflict transitions in conflict-afflicted Arab countries; the impact of violent conflict on lives and livelihoods in the MENA region; the foundations for post conflict economic growth; and Economic Interdependency and Conflict.

The main issues addressed by the research project include the measurement of economic destruction providing new insights by applying modern data science techniques. Some potential avenues include satellite data, GIS methods, text/data analytics, and field surveys/experiments. The research also addresses micro-level estimates for the determinants of post-conflict growth and development in the region— such as education, wages, employment, consumption/savings, firm productivity, technology, investment, export/import, etc. Moreover, the research attempts to provide estimates of long-term economic growth, which would further be used in counterfactual policy analyses along several dimensions, and, employ appropriately-designed macro-econometric models to produce estimates of long-term economic growth, which would further be used in counterfactual policy analyses along several dimensions. Finally, the project addresses issues of human capital and institutions, issues of repatriation, as well as political stability with the aim to propose a feasible roadmap with some alternative scenarios that would help reaching political stability in the countries under study and the region.