Deciphering the Relationship between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Deciphering the Relationship between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia

Mohamed Amara and Hatem Jemmali


Date:
September, 2016

NO.
1043

Length:
22 pages

Topic:
R2. Household Analysis
O1. Economic Development

This paper analysis the key factors that shape inter-governorates migration in Tunisia, focusing mainly on the role of distance, labor market characteristics, human capital and per capita expenditure in driving migration flows. It uses basic and extended gravity model as well as the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood model for modelling migration data extracted from the 2004 census. The main findings reveal that, as expected, inter-governorate migrations in Tunisia are affected by high population size at the origin and destination, high unemployment rate at the origin, low unemployment rate at the destination. The paper’s results suggest as well that migrations flows are affected negatively by high job vacancies availability and per capita expenditure at the origin. However, the contribution of wage and human capital variables in the explanation of migration was not significant.

ملخص

تقوم هذه  الورقة بتحليل العوامل الرئيسية التي تشكل الهجرة بين المحافظات في تونس، مع التركيز بشكل أساسي على دور المسافة، وخصائص سوق العمل، رأس المال البشري وإنفاق الفرد في التأثير على تدفقات الهجرة. ويستخدم نموذج الجاذبية الأساسية والموسعة وكذلك بواسون نموذج شبه الأقصى، احتمال لنمذجة بيانات الهجرة المستخرجة من التعداد السكاني عام 2004. تكشف النتائج الرئيسية التي، كما هو متوقع، أن تتأثر الهجرة بين المحافظات في تونس بارتفاع حجم السكان في المنشأ والمقصد، وارتفاع معدل البطالة في الأصل، وانخفاض معدل البطالة في الوجهة. وتشير النتائج كذلك أن تدفقات الهجرات تتأثر سلبا من جراء ارتفاع توافر الوظائف الشاغرة وإنفاق الفرد في الأصل. ومع ذلك، كانت مساهمة المتغيرات كالأجور ورأس المال البشري في تفسير الهجرة ليست بكبيرة

Authors

Mohamed Amara

Associate Professor, Higher School of Economic and Commercial Sciences of Tunis, University of Tunis


Authors

Hatem Jemmali

Associate Professor, University of Manouba


Project

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