Coastal lagoons represent critical socio-ecological systems facing intense governance conflicts due to competing uses and institutional fragmentation. This study employs the MACTOR (Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts: Tactics, Objectives, and Relationships) method to analyze actor dynamics, power asymmetries, and governance conflicts in the Bizerte Lagoon (Tunisia), a Mediterranean hotspot experiencing severe ecological degradation from industrialization, fisheries, aquaculture, and agricultural pressures. Through systematic mapping of 17 actors (governmental, economic, civil society) and 9 governance objectives (economic, social, environmental, institutional), we reveal a stratified power structure characterized by: (1) Dominant actors (Ministry of Environment, industrial operators, military) wielding disproportionate influence while resisting accountability; (2) Relay actors (e.g., sanitation agencies, local authorities) trapped in high-dependence roles, exacerbating implementation gridlock; and (3) Marginalized actors (artisanal fishers, shellfish farmers) bearing ecological burdens without decision-making agency. MACTOR’s quantitative matrices (MDII, Ri/Qi, 2MAO) expose irreconcilable conflicts between pro-development and pro-conservation blocs, particularly over industrial expansion (E3) versus water quality (V1) and equity (SE1). Notably, latent power potential (Qi) among resource-dependent actors and civil society remains untapped due to institutional barriers. Our findings demonstrate that environmental degradation in Bizerte stems not from resource scarcity but from governance failures rooted in power asymmetries and institutional fragmentation. We advocate for transformative governance reforms: redistributing decision-making power, integrating polycentric management, and leveraging latent actor potential (e.g., fishers’ ecological knowledge, universities’ technical expertise) to reconcile ecological sustainability with social equity. This study advances strategic actor analysis as a critical tool for diagnosing and resolving intractable socio-ecological conflicts in contested coastal systems worldwide
