Remittances and Disaggregated Country Risk Ratings in Tunisia: An ARDL Approach - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Remittances and Disaggregated Country Risk Ratings in Tunisia: An ARDL Approach

Dorsaf Sridi and Wafa Ghardallou


Date:
July, 2019

NO.
1326

Length:
23 pages

Publisher:
Economic Research Forum

Topic:
C2. Single Equation Models
F2. International Factor Movements and International Business

Tunisia is currently facing political, economic and financial problems that are having an impact on the flow of remittances. This study is the first attempt to give a thorough analysis of two-way relationship between workers’ remittances and disaggregated country risk ratings (such as economic, financial and political risk) in Tunisia in short and the long run, spanning a period 1984-2016. In an attempt to achieve this key objective, an ARDL approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, Wald test, and Granger causality test are adopted to investigate this linkage. The results show the presence of a long-run relationship. In addition, and with reference to the empirical results it could be deduced that in the long-run, economic risks have a negative impact on remittances, whereas in the short-run, they have a positive impact. The financial risk increases remittances because it includes variables related to remittances such as exchange rate stability. On the other hand, a higher level of remittances carries a higher level of financial risk in the short- and long-run. These results should engage policy-makers to minimize this negative effect and to channel remittances towards investment purposes. Results also indicate that, in response to an increase in remittances, the political risk decreases in the short run but increases in the long run.

Dorsaf Sridi

Higher Institute of Management of Sousse


Wafa Ghardallou

Princess Noura University


Project

EVENTS

There are no Events PAST



Related Publications

Working Papers

The Role of Labor Market Frictions in Structural Transformation

Khalid El Fayoumi and Gregory Auclair

Against what theory predicts, large productivity gaps across sectors persist and the process of structural ... read more


Working Papers

Impact of Informal Job-search on Wages for University Graduates in Egypt and Jordan

Obbey Ahmed Elamin

This research examines the impact of informal job search on wage for university graduates on ... read more