Thought Leadership Series
War, Fragmentation, and Opportunity: Repositioning the MENA Economy in a New Global Order
No.
TL 1
Publisher
ERF
Date
May, 2026
In this Issue:
This inaugural issue examines how war, geopolitical fragmentation, and global economic uncertainty are changing the terms of development for MENA. It looks beyond the immediate crisis to ask how disruption is transmitted through trade routes, logistics systems, prices, finance, confidence, firms, workers, and households. The paper argues that the region’s policy challenge is not only to stabilise in the face of shocks, but to build the institutional capacity, evidence base, and reform pathways needed to turn vulnerability into resilience and resilience into opportunity. It sets out a research and policy agenda for ERF’s network, focusing on transmission channels, policy effectiveness, state capacity, inclusion, and long-term economic transformation.