Conference Paper
The Impact of Expectations and Uncertainty on Export Dynamics: Evidence from Türkiye
No.
ERF_31_IE158
Publisher
ERF
Date
March, 2025
Topic
F. International Economics
Becoming integrated into global markets has long been recognized as a key driver of economic growth and development. Uncertainty, especially in policy and market expectations, is increasingly shaping the landscape despite the acknowledged benefits of trade. The specific mechanisms through which expectations and uncertainty affect export dynamics in Türkiye are investigated in this study. The study aims to provide nuanced insights into exporters' behavior in response to different levels of uncertainty and expectations by employing a rigorous empirical approach and using comprehensive data sources. The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model (Shin et al. 2014) is employed to investigate the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate and foreign trade expectations on Turkish exports. Quarterly data from Türkiye, ranging from 2011.Q1 to 2023.Q4, are used to investigate the asymmetric effects of exporting expectations on exporting volume. By addressing these issues, this research aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of how expectations and uncertainties shape export dynamics and provide practical recommendations for policymakers to promote sustainable economic growth through enhanced trade strategies.
Research Fellows
Nergiz Dincer
Professor, Department of Economics and Vice Director,...
Authors
Yeliz Yalcin
Professor of Econometrics, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli...
Authors
Cengiz Arikan
Data Scientist, Organization for Economic Cooperation and...