Conference Paper
Promoting Exports in the MENA Region: Do Uncertainty Risks Matter?
No.
ERF32AC_57
Publisher
ERF
Date
May, 2026
Topic
F4. Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O1. Economic Development
This paper re-evaluates the export-led growth hypothesis in the MENA region, examining the specific influences of various uncertainty risks. Four main results are found in this investigation. First, while overall economic growth is positively correlated with an increase in total exports, it demonstrates no significant response to a rise in manufactured exports. This underscores the reliance of many MENA countries on revenue from primary commodity exports as a key driver of economic growth. Second, neither labor nor exchange rates have a significant impact on overall economic growth, as total exports appear relatively insensitive to these factors. However, a surplus of labor can be a crucial catalyst for long-term growth in the manufacturing sector, while depreciation in the domestic currency can incentivize manufacturing exports and foster economic growth in MENA economies. Third, Geopolitical risks can drive an increase in total exports, as demand for raw commodities, particularly energy and agricultural products, surges during periods of war, conflict, and geopolitical instability. Finally, manufactured exports are less susceptible to geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty but remain highly vulnerable to escalating trade restrictions.
Authors
Assil El Mahmah
Economic Advisor, Ministry of Economy and Planning,...