Conference Paper
International Sanctions and Internal Conflict: The Case of Iran
No.
ERF_31_IE180
Publisher
ERF
Date
March, 2025
Topic
F. International Economics
This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three subcomponents (civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war) as well as a sanction intensity index, we find that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran indicate that higher intensity sanctions may allow sender country governments to put pressure on target country political regimes without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions, may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change.
Research Fellows
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Professor in Economics of the Middle East,...
Authors
Jerg Gutmann
Assistant Professor of Behavioral Law & Economics,...