Conference Paper
How Exposed Are Workers in MENA to AI? Evidence on Employment Risk and Task Complementarity
No.
ERF32AC_209
Publisher
ERF
Date
May, 2026
Topic
J2. Demand and Supply of Labor
O1. Economic Development
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is taking over production processes worldwide and is making inroads even in regions with weaker digital infrastructure and less qualified workforce, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study investigates how the diffusion of AI is reshaping labor markets in MENA, where structural vulnerabilities heighten risks of unequal technological impacts. Using detailed occupational data from Egyptian (2018 and 2023), Jordanian (2010, 2016) and Tunisian (2014, 2022, 2023) nationally-representative labor-market surveys, we classify jobs and workers by their exposure and complementarity to AI using several alternative task-based indices. The analysis documents substantial cross-country and within-country heterogeneity: while many high-skill, urban and younger workers are positioned to benefit from AI-complementary tasks, large segments – particularly rural residents, older workers, and those in routine or low-digitized sectors – face elevated substitution risks. Consistent with studies from other world regions, women are found to be more affected by AI than men. Comparative results show that Jordan exhibits the highest exposure, Tunisia the lowest, and Egypt an intermediate profile once complementarity is considered. By quantifying emerging skills gaps and identifying at-risk groups, the study offers targeted recommendations for education systems, workforce development, and sectoral strategies to support an inclusive growth-enhancing AI transformation.
Research Fellows
Shireen AlAzzawi
Teaching Professor, Economics Department, Leavey School of...
Authors
Vladimir Hlasny
Economic Affairs Officer, UN Economic and Social...