Working Papers
Civil War Onset, Natural Resource Rents and Social Cohesion
No.
1401
Publisher
ERF
Date
September, 2020
Topic
N5. Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries
Q3. Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
This paper examines the nexus between civil war onset, natural resource rents, and social cohesion. Indeed, the main hypothesis is centered on the role of the hydrocarbon resource in promoting conflicts, especially in societies characterized by discrimination. Hence, using a comprehensive dataset, this paper’s contribution is twofold. First, we test the non-linear effect of institutions and rents on the likelihood of civil war onset. Second, we introduce several measures of social cohesion and institutions. Our main findings show that both political institutions and rents have a non-linear effect on the outbreak of civil wars. Moreover, social cohesion variables measured by the share of discriminated population increases the probability of a civil war onset. These results remain robust in different econometric specifications, various estimation techniques and diverse measures.
Research Fellows
Ibrahim Elbadawi
Managing Director, Economic Research Forum
Authors
Hosam Ibrahim
PhD student, Department of Applied Economics, University...
Research Fellows
Chahir Zaki
Chaired Professor of Economics, University of Orléans