ERF 27th Annual Conference
Between Hope and Despair: Egypt’s Revolution and Migration Intentions
No.
ERF27_152
Publisher
ERF
Date
May, 2021
Topic
D7. Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
F2. International Factor Movements and International Business
O1. Economic Development
We study the effect of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and its aftermath on migration intentions of the Egyptian youth. We measure revolution intensity using the spacial variation in the number of deaths during the revolution from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution Wikithawra and combine it with data on migration intentions from the Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt (HSYPE). Difference-in-difference estimations show that the revolution significantly decreased the migration intentions of youth, especially young men. Single women did not change their migration intentions, mainly due to their financial dependence. Results also show that the youth living in informal slum areas experienced stronger effects. We describe two opposing channels: the insecurity channel, which positively affects migration intentions, and the optimism channel, which negatively affects migration intentions by inducing hope in a better Egyptian future. Youth in rural and slum areas were more sensitive to the optimism channel, due to their higher threshold of insecurity perception.
Authors
Yvonne Giesing
PostDoc, ifo Institute in Munich
Authors
Reem Hassan
Data Consultant, Pandata in Berlin