Working Papers
A GMM Approach for An Explanation of the Fertility Change Upward in Tunisia
No.
1409
Publisher
ERF
Date
October, 2020
Topic
C2. Single Equation Models
J1. Demographic Economics
In Tunisia as in some Arab countries like in Algeria and Egypt, fertility has known, after a deep decline, a steady increase from the mid of 2000s. This paper tries to apprehend this unexpected and current demographic issue. For that aim, we revisit the classical fertility decline factors (namely education, income, mortality and contraceptive prevalence) in order to inspect if they do no longer influence fertility downward. Furthermore, we explore three new socio-economic factors likely to favor fertility rise, such as divorce, unemployment and longevity. We apply the dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) method over the period 1999-2017 on eight Tunisian regions. Findings confirm our presumption. The three new variables estimated have a positive effect on fertility. Likewise, the education fertility interaction is no longer obvious. Family planning program appears no longer playing its role. The income effect dominated the substitution effect in favor of fertility increase. The increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be caused by the sociocultural factors.
Research Associates
Olfa Frini
Associate Professor, Higher Institute of Accounting and...