Home > Publications > Conference Paper > When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

Conference Paper

When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

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    • No.

    ERF32AC_37

    Publisher

    ERF

    Date

    May, 2026

    Topic

    Q1. Agriculture

    Q5. Environmental Economics

    O1. Economic Development

    Increasing water stress, exacerbated by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts, poses a significant threat to smallholder farmers within water-stressed regions. This study examines perceptions of irrigation water scarcity (IWS) among 501 Egyptian smallholder farmers, their intentions to adopt farm-level mitigation strategies, and their migration aspirations. Findings reveal significant heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of IWS severity, emphasizing the need for tailored interventions addressing distinct challenges across farmer groups. Perceived IWS severity and trust in water-management institutions significantly influence farmers’ adoption of farm-level coping strategies. The results further reveal a spectrum of migration aspirations among farmers, ranging from minimal relocation interest to firm commitment. Migration decisions are driven by three factors: resource availability, institutional credibility, and personal risk assessments. Notably, migration outcomes—whether gains or losses—are unevenly distributed and closely linked to observed migration profiles. These findings provide critical insights into the nonlinear IWS-migration nexus, demonstrating how extreme water stress (beyond coping thresholds) triggers committed migration. Overall, the findings underscore the need for dual-track policies: proactively equipping vulnerable farmers with adaptive resources to prevent IWS-induced displacement, while implementing tiered systems to sustain resilient livelihoods or manage inevitable relocation.
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    • When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

    Research Fellows

    Assem Abu Hatab

    Professor of Development Economics, Nordic Africa Institute...

    When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

    Authors

    Mohamed Abdelhameed Ahmed Mohamed

    Associate Professor, Fayoum University

    When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

    Authors

    Shilpa Muliyil Asokan

    Senior Researcher, Climate, Natural Resources & Sustainability,...

    When Water Runs Dry: How Irrigation Water Scarcity Shapes Smallholder Farmers’ Mitigation Strategies and Migration Aspiration in Developing Countries

    Authors

    Carl-Johan Lagerkvist

    Professor in Business Economics, Swedish University of...

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