The Economics of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Neighboring Countries. The Case of Lebanon - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

The Economics of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Neighboring Countries. The Case of Lebanon

Anda David, Mohamed Ali Marouani, Charbel Nahas and Björn Nilsson


Date:
November, 2018

NO.
1249

Length:
31 pages

Topic:
D5. General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
F2. International Factor Movements and International Business
J2. Demand and Supply of Labor
J1. Demographic Economics

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war-torn economy on the economy of a neighboring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labor market, the production apparatus, and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high-skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers is found. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labor market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long-term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.

ملخص

في هذه المقالة ، نقوم بالتحقيق في آثار النزوح الجماعي للعمال من اقتصاد مزقته الحرب على اقتصاد بلد مجاور. بتطبيق نهج التوازن العام للاقتصاد اللبناني ، نستكشف هذه الآثار من واقع مختلف مكونات الأزمة في سوق العمل ، وأجهزة الإنتاج ، ومؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي. جنبا إلى جنب مع الأدبيات السابقة ، تشير نتائجنا إلى تأثيرات محدودة أو معدومة على العمال المحليين ذوي المهارات العالية ، ولكن تم العثور على تأثير سلبي على العمال اللبنانيين الأكثر ضعفا. عندما تأخذ المعونة شكل إعانات الاستثمار ، ينشأ نمو أفضل بشكل ملحوظ وتتحسن آفاق سوق العمل ، مع التذكير بضرورة استكمال المعونة الإنسانية بمساعدات للتنمية حتى يتحقق النجاح في الوصول إلى أهداف طويلة الأجل. ومع ذلك ، قد لا يكون هذا قابلاً للتطبيق من الناحية السياسية في سياق يعتبر فيه وجود اللاجئين مؤقتًا

Authors

Anda David

Research Officer with the Research and Development Division of the Agence Française de Développement.


Research Fellows

Mohamed Ali Marouani

Associate Professor, Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne


Authors

Charbel Nahas

Former Lebanese Labour Minister


Authors

Björn Nilsson

French Institute of Development Research (IRD)


Project

EVENTS

There are no Events PAST



Related Publications

Working Papers

Trade Policy in a Sovereign Palestinian State: What are the Options in a Final Settlement?

Johanes Agbahey, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe and Jonas Luckmann

Economic development and trade performance in Palestine are strongly affected by the unusual links between ... read more


Working Papers

Economic Voting Under Single-Party and Coalition Governments: Evidence From The Turkish Case

Ali Akarca

Strength of economic voting under single-party and coalition governments is investigated in the case of ... read more


Working Papers

Export Orientation and Exchange Rate Changes: Do Firms React Differently and Why?

Khalid Sekkat

Abstract This paper uses firm level data from 28 developing countries to examine the relationship between ... read more