Foreign Exchange Regimes, The Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Sustainability: The Case of Turkey - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

During the last two and half decades Turkey has suffered from three foreign exchange crises resulting in considerable loss of income. The paper argues that the country in order to avoid the foreign exchange crisis has to stay away from having too big current account deficits. Noting that under perfect capital mobility there will always be the unavoidable risk of speculative attacks on the currency unless the country resolves its fiscal problems, attains price stability, and achieves a sound banking sector, the paper stresses importance of current account sustainability and highlights shortcomings of current policies pursued by Turkey.

ملخص

عانت تركيا خلال العقدين ونصف العقد الأخيرين من ثلاث أزمات تتعلق بالنقد الأجنبي مما أحدث خسائر كبيرة في الدخل .يناقش هذا البحث فكرة أنه على الدولة الابتعاد عن حالات العجز ضخمة في الحسابات الجارية لكي تتجنب أزمة النقد الأجنبي، مع ملاحظة أنه حتى مع توفير سهولة تامة لحركة رأس مال، فإنه سيكون هناك دائمًا مخاطرة لا يمكن تجنبها فيما يتعلق بهجمات افتراضية على العملة، إلا إذا قامت الدولة بحل مشاكلها المالية و تمكنت من الوصول إلى استقرار فى الأسعار، إلى جانب بناء قطاع مصرفي قوي. أخيرا يؤكد البحث على أهمية استدامة الحساب الجاري كما يلقى الضوء على أوجه القصور في السياسات الحالية المتبعة في تركيا

 

Research Fellows

Subidey Togan

Professor, Bilkent University


Research Fellows

Hasan Ersel

Faculty Member, Faculty of Management & Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University


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