Semih Tumen - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Semih Tumen

Research Fellows

Associate Professor of Economics, TED University, Turkey

Areas of Interest:

  • Labor Economics
  • Microeconometrics
  • Economics of Education
  • Economics of Immigration
  • Development Economics


  • Ph.D., Economics, 2012., University of Chicago
  • M.A., Economics, 2007., University of Chicago
  • M.Sc., Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, 2006., London School of Economics & Political Science
  • B.Sc., Economics, 2000., Middle East Technical University


  • TED University, Associate Professor of Economics, 2018- to date
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Executive Director, 2016-2018.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Deputy Executive Director, 2015-2016.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Economist, Research and Monetary Policy Dept., 2011-2015.

Latest Publications:

  • “The Empirical Content of Season-of-Birth Effects: An Investigation with Turkish Data,” with H. Torun, Demographic Research, 37, 1825-1860 (2017).
  • “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design,” with E. Ceritoglu, B. Gurcihan-Yunculer, and H. Torun, IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 6:5 (2017).
  • “Entrepreneurship in the Shadows: Wealth Constraints and Government Policy,” The Economics of Transition, 25, 239-270 (2017).
  • “The Effects of Compulsory Military Service Exemption on Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment,” with H. Torun, Economics of Education Review, 54, 16-35 (2016).
  • “Social Interactions in Job Satisfaction,” with T. Zeydanli, International Journal of Manpower, 37, 426-455 (2016).
  • “The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Turkey,” American Economic Review, 106, 456-460 (2016).
  • “Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey,” with B. Balkan, Journal of Population Economics, 29, 657-686 (2016).
FEMISE - ERF Euromed Report

Repatriation of Refugees from Arab Conflicts: Conditions, Costs and Scenarios for Reconstruction

The prospects for early re­patriation of refugees who have fled conflicts in Arab countries in ... read more

Working Papers

The Effect of Refugees on Native Adolescents’ Test Scores: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Pisa

Existing evidence suggests that low-skilled refugee influx increases high school enrollment among native youth ... read more


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