Working Papers
Scenario-Based Forecast for Post-Conflict’s Growth in Syria
No.
1385
Publisher
ERF
Date
April, 2020
Topic
C. Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
D7. Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
O4. Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper investigates the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, consumer prices and parallel market exchange rate in the Syrian economy during the period 1990-2017. We provide a comprehensive analysis for the macroeconomic policies and performance in the pre-conflict and during the conflict periods. For this purpose, we employ two advanced estimation approaches, namely, nonlinear ARDL and Structural VAR. these techniques are very useful to estimate how real GDP has reacted to shocks stemming from three major macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer prices, and parallel exchange rate market. The empirical results indicate that the responses of real GDP to negative shocks in money supply are greater than its responses to positive shocks in money supply during the conflict period. Moreover, we distinguish four different scenario for money supply as possible views of rebuilding scenarios. The achievement of this scenario depends on the political settlement agreement and the size of capital inflow into the economy.
Research Fellows
Mouyad Alsamara
Associate Professor of Economics, College of Business...
Research Fellows
Zouhair Mrabet
Associate Professor, College of Business and Economics,...
Authors
Ahmad Shikh Ebid
Reconstruction and Economic Recovery, NAFS Programme- UN...