Regional Impact of the Climate Change: A CGE Analysis for Turkey

Abstract The effects of climate change on the overall economy necessitate taking into account backward and forward linkages of agriculture. However, the number of studies that relate climate change to agricultural production in Turkey through a sector or economy wide model is limited. Hence, further quantification of the effects of climate change on agricultural and overall economy is required to ponder about the possible impact of the climate change. This paper presents the results of a CGE modeling framework with enhanced regionalization. In addition the base year of the model is 2008. The model disaggregates national economy to 12 NUTS 1 regions. Results of global and regional climate models are used to run simulations about climate change. The results suggest that effects of climate change are significant and that regional interactions are important in understanding these effects. Our results support the fact that climate change mitigation should be considered as an integrated issue that would cause complicated results. Hence, any climate change mitigation policy needs to be region specific but should also consider the interaction among the regions. Arabic Abstract: