Agricultural Transformation and Labor Mobility During the ARIP Period in Turkey: Evidence from Micro-Data, 2000-2002

This paper analyses the transition dynamics in and out of agricultural and non-agricultural employment in the Turkish labor market during ARIP period. A multinomial logit model is used to determine the factors that affect these processes. Before launching our investigation of the flows, we dealt with the attrition/substitution problem. We reviewed the methodology developed by Tunali, Ekinci and Yavuzoglu (2011) and adopt it for the problem we are addressing. Empirical findings confirm that there is a systematic relationship between attrition behavior and labor market outcomes in the HLFS. For workers aged 15 and over, non-participants in both periods are severely overrepresented in the balanced panel. In addition, unemployed workers and employed workers in agriculture are underrepresented in the balanced panel. We calculate weights (reflation/deflation factors) for individuals. We then use these weights in MNL regression as probability weights. The MNL results enlighten the challenges of making successful transition to non-agricultural employment that faced by the workers who have left agriculture. Age and educational attainment are crucial for making a successful transition between agricultural and non-agricultural employment. Elder generations and less educated people are more likely to continue with farming. Better educated individuals are more likely to flow into non-agricultural employment.  

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