Conference Paper
Intergenerational Labor Market Transitions in MENA: Exploring the Impact of Climate Shocks
No.
ERF32AC_232
Publisher
ERF
Date
May, 2026
Topic
J6. Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
Q5. Environmental Economics
This paper examines how climate shocks influence intergenerational labor market transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with a focus on Egypt. Using panel data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (1998–2023) combined with district-level temperature anomalies from NASA POWER, we investigate the extent to which climate shock disrupt the occupational trajectories between fathers and sons, particularly transitions in and out of agricultural employment. Employing a Difference-in-Differences event-study framework with two-way fixed effects, we estimate the dynamic impact of climate anomalies on intergenerational mobility elasticities. Preliminary findings indicate that heat shocks reduce persistence in agricultural occupations across generations and modestly weaken intergenerational occupational mobility (p ≈ 0.08), especially in Upper Egypt governorates. These effects suggest that climate shocks may exacerbate structural labor market rigidities and deepen intergenerational inequality. Policy implications include the need for climate-adaptive labor policies, targeted educational investments, and resilience-building measures for vulnerable households. The study contributes novel evidence on the long-term repercussions of climate change on intergenerational labor dynamics in developing country settings, highlighting the urgency of integrating climate resilience into labor market strategies in the MENA region.
Research Fellows
Yasmine Abdelfattah
Assistant Professor of Statistics and Economics, University...
Research Fellows
Shireen AlAzzawi
Teaching Professor, Economics Department, Leavey School of...
Authors
Vladimir Hlasny
Economic Affairs Officer, UN Economic and Social...