Conference Paper

Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Household Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Tunisia

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No.

ERF32AC_14

Publisher

ERF

Date

May, 2026

Topic

Q5. Environmental Economics

Abstract
Author(s)

Under the global challenge of climate change (CC), farmers’ coping strategies have long been a focus for policymakers and researchers. The scientific community has engaged in foresight scenarios and modelling, as well as studies tracing links between CC, biodiversity, food security, and livelihoods. In drylands, a key impact of climate change is the “meteorological-drought pathway,” which affects food production and rural food security. In North Africa, studies show Tunisia is drought-prone. Increasing droughts have seriously affected food production in arid areas. Climate change, food security concerns, and erratic rainfall are straining agriculture, highlighting the need for more resilient food systems. Tunisia receives national and international support to counter climate change. The country is committed to helping smallholder farmers adopt climate-smart innovations. However, there is limited documentation on how these coping strategies affect farmers’ livelihoods and vulnerability to food insecurity. Thus, direct links between climate impacts and coping strategies, especially regarding food security, remain largely unexplored. This study examines how adopting individual and combined climate change coping strategies affects smallholder farmers' vulnerability to food insecurity in two Tunisian dryland regions, Zaghouan and Kairouan. The paper aims to construct a resilience index that integrates coping strategies into the resilience discussion by linking the role of resilience capacity and coping strategies with a resilience capacity index. In this study, we utilize cross-sectional quantitative and qualitative data collected from primary and secondary sources through surveys of 670 farm households in two Tunisian dryland regions. We develop a conceptual framework that identifies the components and linkages of the meteorological drought pathway, alongside coping strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Building on the established meteorological drought framework, which has advanced empirical understanding of environmental stressors, we assess the agricultural drought pathway in these regions. This analysis provides insights into spatial and temporal drought patterns, enabling classification of households by resilience capacity and drought intensity. To measure resilience, we apply the FAO’s RIMA-II framework (2016), using the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) and Resilience Structure Matrix (RSM). Our approach follows a two-stage procedure: first, factor analysis constructs resilience pillars; second, a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model estimates the RCI and examines its relationship with food security outcomes. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is employed to explore complex interactions among these pillars. This study anticipates demonstrating that smallholder farmers’ coping strategies are closely linked to the intensity of drought events, with resilience capacity playing a critical moderating role in reducing the negative impacts of climate shocks on food security. Key factors such as income and food access, asset ownership, access to basic services, adaptive capacity, and social safety nets are expected to significantly enhance farm households’ resilience to food insecurity. Overall, the integration of resilience and coping strategies is projected to improve both food security and the well-being of smallholder farmers in Tunisia’s dryland regions. The findings will provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers to promote diversified and context-specific adaptation strategies that enhance food security in arid and semi-arid landscapes. Specifically, the results will support the design and prioritization of targeted public-private interventions, including investments in research and development, improved dissemination of climate-smart agricultural practices, and strengthened collaboration among farmers, extension services, and research institutions. By identifying the most effective coping strategies, the study will inform policies that not only improve household food security but also build community-level resilience against future climate-related shocks. This approach aligns with the broader regional goals of sustainable agricultural development and poverty reduction, offering actionable pathways to support vulnerable smallholder farmers in Tunisia and similar MENA contexts. This study combines spatial analysis with resilience measurement to offer a novel framework for assessing drought impacts on smallholder farmers. It provides evidence on how coping strategies linked to the meteorological drought pathway help mitigate risks to livelihoods and food security. By highlighting resilience’s role in food security, the research informs scalable interventions in dryland contexts. Focusing on smallholder farmers as end-users, it delivers practical policy insights on the effectiveness of climate-smart coping strategies.