Policy Briefs
On the Practice of Sustainable Growth in Egypt
No.
PB 156
Publisher
ERF
Date
March, 2026
Topic
O2. Development Planning and Policy
O1. Economic Development
In a nutshell
- The Transition: As Egypt concludes a decade of IMF programs in 2026, it must shift from short-term stabilization to a long-term, structural growth model.
- The Triple Crisis: The economy faces three chronic bottlenecks: a public revenue crisis, a stagnant export sector, and a significantly low national savings rate compared to global peers.
- Macroeconomic Stability: High external debt has fueled inflation; future growth depends on decoupling development from debt through inflation-targeting and fiscal discipline.
- Structural Reform: Sustainable growth requires a "level playing field" for the private sector, moving away from state-led, non-tradable sectors toward high-productivity, export-oriented industries.
- Policy Recommendations: Priorities must include mobilizing domestic savings, enhancing export competitiveness, and investing in green economy resilience to ensure a stable post-2026 era.
Senior Associates
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Professor, Department of Economics - Cairo University,...