Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region

Samir Ghazouani


Date:
October, 2012

NO.
715

Length:
16 pages

Topic:
C5. Econometric Modeling
E3. Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

The nature of the relationship between inflation and growth is highlighted in the present study conducted for a set of nineteen MENA countries using annual data for the period [1961-2010]. A threshold effect is detected empirically through a negative and significant impact of inflation on growth above a threshold of about 10 percent. To achieve this task, non-linearity of the relationship between inflation and growth is investigated through a dynamic panel threshold model. Our results are comparable to empirical studies for developing countries.

 

ملخص

يتم تمييز طبيعة العلاقة بين التضخم والنمو في هذه الدراسة التي أجريت لمجموعة من 19 بلد من بلدان المنطقة باستخدام بيانات سنوية للفترة [1961-2010]. تم الكشف تجريبيا عن تأثير الحد الأدنى من خلال تأثير سلبي وكبير من التضخم على النمو فوق حد 10 في المئة تقريبا. لتحقيق هذه المهمة، يتم التحقيق فى هذه الورقة عن علاقة غير خطية بين التضخم والنمو من خلال نموذج مسح حدى حيوى . نتائجنا قابلة للمقارنة مع الدراسات التجريبية للبلدان النامية.
Research Fellows

Samir Ghazouani

Full Professor of Econometrics, Busienss School of Tunis (ESCT), Manouba, Tunisia


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