Picking Winners at the Ballot Box: Votes and Local Economic Growth in Turkey - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Picking Winners at the Ballot Box: Votes and Local Economic Growth in Turkey

Davide Luca

October, 2018


42 pages

H7. State and Local Government
R1. General Regional Economics
C2. Single Equation Models
D7. Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
O4. Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O1. Economic Development

While there is systematic evidence of how governments affect policy outputs for strategic reasons, a limited amount of studies has assessed whether these distortions are consequential for economic growth. Using data from Turkey over the period 2004-2013, the current paper measures the effect of voting for the national incumbent party on local economic performance. New instrumental variable estimates suggest that provinces where the electoral race for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) was closer have experienced faster per-capita GVA and employment growth rates. The effect is economically substantive and increases in election years. Results also provide evidence that the government has affected growth through the selective provision of state goods.


ينما تتوفر أدلة منهجية على كيفية تأثير الحكومات على مخرجات السياسة العامة لأسباب استراتيجية ، قام عدد محدود من الدراسات بتقدير ما إذا كانت هذه التشوهات ناتجة عن النمو الاقتصادي. تستخدم الورقة الحالية بيانات من تركيا خلال الفترة 2004-2013 ، لقياس تأثير التصويت للحزب الوطني الحالي على الأداء الاقتصادي المحلي. تشيرتقديرات متغير آلى جديد  إلى أن الأقاليم التي كان فيها سباق الفوز باانتخابات أقرب لحزب العدالة والتنمية، قد شهدت نموا أعلى في معدل العمالة ومعدل التشغيل. هذا التأثير جوهري اقتصاديًا ويزداد في سنوات الانتخابات. كما تقدم النتائج دليلاً على أن الحكومة قد حققت النمو من خلال توفير انتقائي لسلع الدولة


Davide Luca

Research Fellow, GSSI School of Advanced Studies



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