Les Fluctuations Cycliques De La Production Et Du Chômage Au Maroc : Une Approche Sectorielle De La Loi D’Okun - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Les Fluctuations Cycliques De La Production Et Du Chômage Au Maroc : Une Approche Sectorielle De La Loi D’Okun

Said Tounsi and Zakaria El Faiz

August, 2019


23 pages

Economic Research Forum

C3. Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models
E3. Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E2. Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy

The aim of this paper is to test the relevance and the stability of Okun’s law for the case of Morocco over the period 2000-2014 using quarterly data. One of the features of our approach is the adoption of dynamic modelling to assess the sensitivity of cyclical unemployment over the periodes of expansion and contraction of the output cycle, as well as its response to sectoral output fluctuations. Our results show the existence of a structural break in the Okun’s relationship for the Moroccan case, and a high rigidity in the unemployment’s dynamic. Also, the asymmetry test of the relationship showed that cyclical unemployment is only linked to contractions in cyclical output, and more particularly to those in the tertiary sector. The policy implications of these results are important for three principal reasons. First, the assumption that “higher growth leads to lower unemployment” is not valid, at least, in the short term. Second, the introduction of policies to make the labour market more flexible is necessary, and finally, the adoption of supply-side policies is required to ensure a structural transformation of the Moroccan economy.


Said Tounsi

Professeur chercheur à l'université Mohammed V de Rabat, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques


Zakaria El Faiz

Doctorant en Sciences Économiques à l’Université Mohammed V de Rabat



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