Is Internal Migration A Way to Cope With Climate Change? Evidence From Egypt - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Is Internal Migration A Way to Cope With Climate Change? Evidence From Egypt

Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef and Nguyen Viet Cuong

May, 2017


28 pages

R2. Household Analysis
Q5. Environmental Economics
O1. Economic Development

In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather events on migration among governorates in Egypt using migration gravity models and data from the 1996 and 2006 Population and Housing Census. We find that low or high temperature and precipitation does not affect the migration of people. Instead, people are considering the weather in destination areas to decide where they should migrate. The number of months with temperature below the five percentiles the distribution of monthly temperature of destination governorates strongly increases in-migration. An additional month with low temperature increases the number of in-migrants by 9.98 percent. For the elderly, they also avoid a governorate with more months of high temperatures. One additional month with temperature above the 95 percentile reduces in the destination governorates the number of old migrants by 8.15 percent.


في هذه الدراسة، ندرس تأثير الظواهر الجوية المتطرفة على الهجرة بين المحافظات في مصر باستخدام نماذج الجاذبية الهجرة والبيانات من تعداد السكان والمساكن 1996 و2006. نجد أن انخفاض أو ارتفاع درجة الحرارة وهطول الأمطار لا يؤثر على هجرة الناس. وبدلا من ذلك، يفكر الناس في الطقس في مناطق المقصد لتحديد المكان الذي يجب أن يهاجروا إليه. فعدد الأشهر التي تقل فيها درجة الحرارة عن خمسة في المائة، يؤدي توزيع درجة الحرارة الشهرية لمحافظات المقاصد إلى زيادة الهجرة إلى حد كبير. ويزيد شهر إضافي مع انخفاض درجة الحرارة من عدد المهاجرين إلى الداخل بنسبة 9.98 في المائة. وبالنسبة لكبار السن، فإنهم يتجنبون أيضا محافظة ذات أشهر أعلى من درجات الحرارة المرتفعة. ويؤدي شهر إضافي مع درجة حرارة أعلى من 95 في المائة إلى تخفيض عدد المهاجرين القدامى بنسبة 8.15 في المائة في المحافظات المقصودة

Research Fellows

Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

Professor of Finance and Sustainable Economics, Université Nice Sophia-Antipolis

Research Fellows

Adel Ben Youssef

Professor of Economics – University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis


Nguyen Viet Cuong

Institute of Public Policy and Management at the National Economics University in Hanoi



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