Growth and Environmental Degradation in MENA Countries: Methodological Issues and Empirical Evidence - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Growth and Environmental Degradation in MENA Countries: Methodological Issues and Empirical Evidence

Imad Moosa

December, 2018


31 pages

C5. Econometric Modeling
C1. Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology
Q5. Environmental Economics

A large number of studies on the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve for MENA countries, producing (as expected) a mixed bag of results. Several econometric issues are considered with reference to estimates of the EKC for Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. These issues include the order of the polynomial representing the EKC, the validity of the log-log specification, cointegration and spurious correlation, missing variables, and the sensitivity and fragility of the results. It is concluded that the most serious issue is the sensitivity of the results to model specification and other factors, which is not considered in the MENA studies of the EKC.


يقدم عدد كبير من الدراسات حول مدى صحة منحنى كوزينتس البيئي لبلدان الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا ، مجموعة مختلطة من النتائج (كما هو متوقع). بأخذ في الاعتبار العديد من القضايا الاقتصادية في ضوء تقديرات ا لمنحنى البيئ فى الجزائر ومصر والأردن وتونس.، يتبين أنها تشمل ترتيب كثير الحدود يمثل منحنى كوزينتس البيئي ، ويظهرصحة مواصفات سجل  مقابل سجل ، وكذلك التكامل المشترك والارتباط الهامشي ، والمتغيرات المفقودة ، وحساسية النتائج وهشاشتها. تخلص الدراسة إلى أن القضية الأكثر خطورة هي حساسية النتائج إلى المواصفات النموذجية والعوامل الأخرى ، والتي  لا تؤخذ في الاعتبار في دراسات منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا

Research Fellows

Imad Moosa

Professor of Finance, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia.



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