Economic, Political and Cultural Proximity and Growth Propagation: A Network Model with Endogenous Proximity Matrix - Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Economic, Political and Cultural Proximity and Growth Propagation: A Network Model with Endogenous Proximity Matrix

Mohamed Mekki Ben Jemaa


Date:
September, 2016

NO.
1047

Length:
17 pages

Topic:
F6. Economic Impacts of Globalization
C1. Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology
O4. Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

The growth model at the Sala-i-Martin (1991 and 1992) fashion is revisited in order to take into account the interdependence of growth across countries based on the idea that outcomes are subject to mutual influence through a set of geographical, cultural, economic and financial determinants that are likely to condition growth propagation between economies through the world. A spatial lag like model is estimated for a sample of 146 countries from 1995 to 2009 in which the adjacency matrix is endogenous and set conditional of a set of bilateral variables describing the multidimensional aspect of the proximity between countries. MCMC estimation results show several prominent key feature of the growth propagation process through the countries’ sample; as 17 MENA countries are in the sample, it was possible to characterize a network of spillover for these countries. One of the most important results is that trade and cultural proximity play a predominant role in growth spillover between countries. Clusters of high spillover effect are not only identified, but also their determinants are clearly assessed along with the importance of their impact. Distinction can be made between reciprocal spillover outcome propagation which identify a high performance cluster and asymmetric propagation witnessing the presence of a hotspot effect.

ملخص

نعيد النظر في نموذج النمو في سالا-أي مارتن (1991 و 1992) للأخذ في الاعتبار الترابط بين النمو في البلدان استنادا إلى فكرة أن النتائج تخضع للتأثير المتبادل من خلال مجموعة من المحددات الجغرافية والثقافية والاقتصادية والمالية التي من المرجح أن تشترط نشر النمو بين الاقتصاديات عبر العالم. ويقدر الفارق المكاني مثل نموذج لعينة من 146 بلدا للفترة 1995-2009 ومجموعة مشروطة من مجموعة من المتغيرات الثنائية واصفا الجانب متعدد الأبعاد من القرب بين البلدان. وأظهرت النتائج تقدير عدة سمة رئيسية بارزة من عملية نشر النمو من خلال عينة من البلدان. إلى 17 دول المنطقة موجودة في العينة، كان من الممكن أن تميز شبكة من امتداد لهذه البلدان. واحدة من أهم النتائج هو أن التجارة والقرب الثقافي يلعبا دورا بارزا في انتشار النمو بين البلدان. لم يتم تحديد مجموعات من تأثير امتداد مرتفع فقط، ولكن أيضا يتم تقييم المحددات بشكل واضح إلى جانب أهمية تأثيرها. ويمكن إجراء تمييز بين متبادل نشر نتائج امتداد التي تحدد مجموعة عالية الأداء ونشر غير متناظر لوجود تأثير قوى

Mohamed Mekki Ben Jemaa


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