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Publications
Working Papers

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Fiscal- Monetary Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in Oil Dependent Arab Economies

Ibrahim Elbadawi, Mohamed Goaied and Moez Ben Tahar

This paper contributes to the literature on the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies in resource-dependent economies.  In the context of this general theme we analyze the fiscal foundation of ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence From Major Oil Producers

Amany El Anshasy, Kamiar Mohaddes and Jeffrey Nugent

This paper examines the long-run effects of oil revenue and its volatility on economic growth as well as the role of institutions in this relationship. We collect annual and monthly ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Demographic Changes and Fiscal Policy in MENA Countries

Mehmet Serkan Tosun

In this study, I examine the links between demographic change and fiscal policy in MENA countries, focusing specifically on the economic impacts coming from the conflict between social security and ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Impact Of Capital and Remittance Flows on Economic Performance in MENA Countries

Magda Kandil and Ida Mirzaie

Abstract Using data for a sample of developing countries, we analyze the effects of external flows, namely migrants' remittances and FDI flows, on real output growth, price inflation, and components of aggregate demand. ... read more


Publications
Policy Research Reports

The Economic and Regulatory Policy Implications of Overlapping Preferential Trade Agreements in the Arab Countries: The Case of Tunisia

Mohamed Chemingui and Mohamed Ali Marouani

Ten years following the implementation of major trade reforms in Tunisia, and especially in the aftermath of the Uruguay Round Agreements in the context of the WTO and the partnership ... read more


Publications
Policy Perspectives

The Impact of Non-Tariff Measures: The Experience of MENA Countries

Ahmed Ghoneim and Nicolas Péridy

This policy perspective examines why the role of NTMs in explaining trade performance has been devoted increased attention among economists. It argues that this increased attention has been associated with ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis

Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Competitive Real Exchange Rates Are Good for the Poor: Evidence from Egyptian Household Surveys

Ibrahim Elbadawi and Eman Refaat

This paper develops a theoretical model that allows for assessing the poverty impact of the real exchange rate (RER), as an economy-wide relative price, in a fully optimizing model at ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income -- the sum of remittances, FDI ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Composition of FDI in the MENA Region and Other Countries: Econometric Investigation and Implications for MENA Countries

Philipp Harms and Pierre-Guillaume Méon

We investigate the determinants of the distribution of FDI across greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions in a sample containing up to 91 developed and developing countries over 1987-2005. The ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Growth Effects of Greenfield Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions: Econometric Investigation and Implication for MENA Countries

Philipp Harms and Pierre-Guillaume Méon

We explore the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in developing countries, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (“M&As”) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Trade, Transaction Costs and TFP: Evidence from Tunisia and Egypt

Sofiane Ghali, Habib Zitouna, Zouhour Karray and Slim Driss

Increases in total factor productivity (TFP) are commonly associated with accumulation of knowledge through technological innovation and investment in R&D. However, organizational innovations also improve productivity through the reduction of ... read more