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Publications
Working Papers

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, ... read more


Blog & News

Oil, Middle East, and the Global Economy

In collaboration with the University of Southern California (USC) and the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), ERF is organizing two sessions at the conference on “Oil, Middle East, and ... read more


Events
Workshops/Seminars

Oil, Middle East, and the Global Economy

In collaboration with the University of Southern California (USC) and the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), ERF is organizing two sessions at the conference on “Oil, Middle East, and ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity Over the Bsiness Cycle: An Emirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

Abderrahim Chibi, and Sidi Mohamed Chekouri

This paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy on Algerian economic activity using a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) model. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy across ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Impact of Arab Spring on Hiring and Separation Rates in the Tunisian Labor Market

Ilham Haouas and Almas Heshmati

This paper analyses the hiring and separation rates in Tunisia before and after the Arab Spring of 2011. Several models are specified to study employment decisions based on quarterly administrative ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Iran’s Inflatiory Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, And Supply Constraints

Magda Kandil and Ida Mirzaie

This paper studies determinants of inflation in Iran. The buildup of international reserves has accelerated in response to the higher oil price. Further, the associated increase in government spending has ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Modelling the Density of Egyptian Quarterly CPI Inflation

Doaa Akl Ahmed and Mamdouh M. Abdelsalam

This paper aims at modelling the density of quarterly inflation based on time-varying conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis model developed by Leon, Rubio, and Serna (2005). They model higher-order moments ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance

Suliman Zakaria

This paper investigates the impact of crude oil price shocks on the returns and volatility of the Sudanese stock market, Khartoum stock exchange (KSE). A bivaraite VAR-GARCH model is employed ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Technical Efficiency and Stability to Shocks: A Comparison between Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks in MENA Region

Mohamed El Arbi Chaffai

The banking industry market is shared by conventional and Islamic Banks in MENA. These latter banks have been expanding during the last decade. In an intensely competitive environment, it is ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Bank Profitability and the Business Cycle: Evidence from MENA Countries

Souhir Slimi

Understanding and monitoring the impact of a declined economy on the health of the banking industry is a particularly important challenge for bank regulators and policy makers. In fact, economic ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Effects of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy: Firm-Level Evidence from Temporary Consumption Tax Cuts in Turkey

Florian Misch and Atilim Seymen

The paper investigates the effects of temporary consumption tax cuts using firm-level data. As part of its countercyclical measures implemented during the recent global economic crisis, Turkey temporarily lowered consumption ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt’s High Inflation?

Sherine El-Shawarby and Hoda Selim

This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region

Samir Ghazouani

The nature of the relationship between inflation and growth is highlighted in the present study conducted for a set of nineteen MENA countries using annual data for the period [1961-2010]. ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities and Economic Downturns: A Comparison Analysis Between Cost-Sensitive Learning and Markov-Switching Approaches

Meriem Djennas, and Mustapha Djennas

This paper examines the effects of macro-financial vulnerabilities on economic downturns in North Africa and GCC countries based on a Financial Stress Index (FSI). The paper identifies episodes of financial ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Is there A Bubble in Saudi Real Estate? Evidence from the Stock Market

Mahmoud Haddad and Sam Hakim

This paper analyzes the real estate price data in Saudi Arabia, a country not suspected of experiencing a price bubble, but where restrictive land ownership rights are similar with other ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Business Cycle Synchronization in Euro Area and GCC Countries: A Wavelets-GA Approach

Mustapha Djennas, and Meriem Djennas

In this paper, we use an Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) and Wavelet Transformation (WT) to provide a detailed characterization of the business cycle synchronization among the countries under study, namely ... read more