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Publications
Working Papers

Targeting Debt in Lebanon: A Structural Macro-Econometric Model

Salim Mahmoud Araji, Vladimir Hlasny and Vito Intini

This paper lays out and estimates a structural macro-econometric model of the Lebanese economy to simulate the implications of accumulated debt changes on GDP and other economic indicators, and to ... read more


Blog & News

Structural Change, Resource Misallocation and Growth Dynamics in the MENA Region

ERF is pleased to announce a call for proposals on growth dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using firm- and sector-level data. Characterized by relative stagnation ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Monetary Policy and Economic Performance in Resource Dependent Economies

Bassem Kamar and Raimundo Soto

The aim of this paper is to explore and quantify the role of monetary policy on economic performance in resource-based economies, with a particular focus on Middle East economies. We ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy in Arab Resource- Rich Economies

Adeel Malik

Revisiting macroeconomic policies and outcomes of Arab resource-rich economies (RREs), this paper synthesizes the political economy considerations that underpin policy choices. The paper argues that, in the context of Arab ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Fiscal- Monetary Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in Oil Dependent Arab Economies

Ibrahim Elbadawi, Mohamed Goaied and Moez Ben Tahar

This paper contributes to the literature on the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies in resource-dependent economies.  In the context of this general theme we analyze the fiscal foundation of ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence From Major Oil Producers

Amany El Anshasy, Kamiar Mohaddes and Jeffrey Nugent

This paper examines the long-run effects of oil revenue and its volatility on economic growth as well as the role of institutions in this relationship. We collect annual and monthly ... read more


Publications
Policy Briefs

Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for a New Exchange Rate Arrangement for Gulf Oil-Exporting Countries

Jeffrey A. Frankel

In a nutshell • Oil-exporting countries have experienced huge swings in the dollar price of oil on world markets since the turn of the century. • The effects of these swings on ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically

Jeffrey A. Frankel

The paper proposes an exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries. The goal is to achieve the best of both flexible and fixed exchange rates.  The arrangement is designed to deliver ... read more


Publications

Publications
Working Papers

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of ... read more


Publications
Policy Briefs

Egypt Must Strengthen Budget Institutions to Curb Mounting Budget Deficit

Mohamed Zaky

In a nutshell • Since the January 2011 popular revolution, the budget deficit in Egypt has worsened. • A new strategy announced by the government to contain the budget deficit and control ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Libre échange et migration marocaine: Une approche par l’équilibre général calculable

Mohamed Bouzahzah and Abid Ihadiyan

Cet article développe un modèle d'équilibre général calculable statique intégrant les principales hypothèses de la nouvelle théorie du commerce international : rendements croissants et différenciation des produits. Le modèle comportant ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

A Var Analysis of Exchange Market Pressure: A Case Study for the MENA Region

Ahmed Kamaly and Nese Erbil

Recent currency crises in Asia and Latin America have once again raised the question of how policymakers can successfully defend exchange rates.  In a managed exchange rate regime, exchange rate ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998

Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, Ebru Voyvoda and Erinç Yeldan

Our purpose in this paper is to establish stylized facts of the Turkish macroeconomic adjustments using data from 1969 to date. We adopt a traditional a-priori definition of business cycles ... read more


Publications