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Publications
Working Papers

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Self-Rated Health and Primary Care Utilization: Is Selection into Healthcare Endogenously Determined?

Firat Bilgel and Burhan Can Karahasan

This study assesses the causal effects of primary care utilization on subjective health status in Turkey using individual-level data from the 2012 Health Research Survey. Employing recursive bivariate models that ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Modelling Conditional Volatility and Downside Risk for Istanbul Stock Exchange

Amira Akl Ahmed and Doaa Akl Ahmed

We investigated the impact of alternative variance equation specifications and different densities on the forecasting of one-day-ahead value-at-risk for the Istanbul stock market. The three employed models are symmetric GARCH(1,1) ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Out of Pocket Education Expenditure and Household Budget: Evidence from Arab Countries

Reham Rizk and Hala Abou-Ali

The paper attempts to present a comparative study for patterns of household expenditure on education using different groups of population. The paper based its empirics on cross sectional evidence from ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

How to Achieve Efficiency in Public Procurement Auctions

Bedri Kamil Onur Tas

This paper empirically investigates the optimal number of bidders to achieve the lowest procurement prices in public procurement auctions. We use a unique data set provided by the Public Procurement ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Institutional Quality Effect on Remittances in the MENA Region

Imene Guetat and Dorsaf Sridi

International worker’s remittances have increased over the years to become a main source of income for developing countries. Workers’ remittances have surpassed foreign direct investment and foreign aid. They proved ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Foreign Direct Investment and Wages: Does the Level of Ownership Matter?

Cagatay Bircan

This study hypothesizes that the level of foreign equity participation is a key determinant of the multinational wage premium. In particular, the breakdown of equity in a foreign investment project ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Hadi Salehi Esfahani, Kamiar Mohaddes and Hashem Pesaran

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income -- the sum of remittances, FDI ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Prevention Du Risque De Defaillance Des Banques De La Region Mena: Analyse Par Equations Simultanees En Donnees De Panel

Sanae Solhi and Abdelhaq Mehdi

Les débats sur les risques bancaires n’ont pas cessé de s’amplifier au fur et à mesure que les crises financières se succédèrent (Wall Street 1929, Black Monday 1987, Subprimes 2008). ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Institutions and the Finance-Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries

Kaouthar Gazdar and Mondher Cherif

This paper investigates the effect of institutional quality on the finance-growth nexus. To this end, an empirical model with linear interaction between financial development and institutional quality is estimated. Our ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Rethinking Social Insurance in Egypt: An Empirical Study

Irène Selwaness

The focus of this paper is to empirically analyze the social insurance system (SIS) in Egypt. A first aspect is to estimate the determinants of the coverage among wage workers ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Maziar Raissi and Mehdi Raissi

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2--2011Q2, as well as bounds on impact ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as ... read more


Publications
Working Papers

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Performance in Sudan

Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic performance in Sudan, focusing on three key indicators namely, economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade balance, during the ... read more