PERSPECTIVES DES FLUX D’ÉMIGRANTS ET DES TRANSFERTS DE FONDS ENTRE LA TUNISIE ET L’EUROPE

Based on the characteristics of the Tunisian and European economy and its evolution during the 1994-2015 estimation period, we use the Monte-Carlo simulation method to simulate the number of Tunisian emigrants to nine main European destinations and the impact of this evolution on their remittances between 2015-2040. The main simulation results show that the growth of Tunisian emigrants' flows towards European destinations over the 2015-2040 period is evolving at a slower pace than in the period 1994-2015. This is due to the demographic change that will affect the Tunisian and European population in the years to come. Thus, the main determinant of the amount of transfers to Tunisia is that of the host countries' economic situation, which dominates the number of emigrants as an explanatory factor for the volume of remittances. If conditions in European countries are favorable, Tunisian emigrants are altruistic and increase their remittances when Tunisia suffers from an economic slowdown.